Why Penalty Shootouts Feel Unfair (But Aren't)
The complaint
The standard complaint about penalty shootouts is that they reduce a team sport to a lottery. Fifty people prepare for a tournament; it comes down to five kicks from a spot twelve yards out.
This argument is wrong, but it is wrong in interesting ways. Penalties are not a lottery. They are a skill under extreme psychological pressure, which is a different thing entirely, and one that teams can prepare for.
The psychology
Research on penalty taking identifies several consistent findings. Goalkeepers dive before the ball is kicked in most cases, so a penalty taker who waits for the goalkeeper to commit and then places the ball in the other corner should score almost every time. Very few players do this, because waiting requires controlling anxiety that most humans cannot control in front of a crowd of fifty thousand people.
Kickers who aim for power over placement are more likely to miss. Kickers who decide where they will shoot before they begin their run are more consistent than those who make the decision during the run.
The home advantage in penalty shootouts, consistently found across studies, is explained partly by crowd noise affecting the goalkeeper's timing.
Why preparation matters
England's improvement in penalty shootouts since 2018 is often cited as evidence that preparation works. The Football Association invested in research on the psychology of shootouts, brought in specialists, and began practicing in conditions that replicated tournament pressure rather than in quiet training sessions.
The improvement was visible at the 2018 World Cup, the 2021 Euros and the 2022 World Cup. England still lost at the 2021 Euros on penalties, but the process was calmer and the conversion rate was higher than in previous tournaments.
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